Thursday, October 6, 2022
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Rain, Fall Climate, and a Potential Wildfire Risk


 A number of of you complained that you simply miss fall climate.  That countless summer season just isn’t your cup of tea.

Properly, the climate gods have heard your complaints and the forecasts have modified for early subsequent week.

Rain and cooler climate will arrive–but there’s extra it is best to find out about.

Immediately is cloudy over a lot of the west, as the mixture of onshore circulation, longer nights, and smoke particles contribute to fog and low clouds (see satellite tv for pc picture round midday at present).  As well as, numerous smoke from the Lake Wenatchee hearth is heading in direction of Wenatchee, with very excessive particle concentrations hitting the Apple Capitol.

PurpleAir particle concentrations. Purple colours are very unhealthy

This case will proceed by way of the weekend as excessive strain holds in place over the japanese Pacific.

However on Monday every thing adjustments as a pointy, energetic trough of low strain sneaks across the upper-level  ridge and pushes into the Northwest (see higher air map–500 hPa strain, about 18000 ft– for five PM Mondy)

This trough will convey cooler air from the northwest and rain, dropping the highs on Monday and Tuesday into the decrease 60s.   You’ll be desirous about some sizzling chocolate and your jacket.

Right here is the precipitation forecast for the 24-h ending 5 AM Tuesday morning.  A couple of tenths of an inch within the lowlands, a bit extra within the mountains.  Sufficient to moist the bottom however no a lot else.

The trough will transfer southward into California, bringing some showers and probably some robust winds into the Golden State (see upper-level map for Wednesday at 5 PM). 

It is a unusual sample for the Northwest, leading to robust easterly (from the east) circulation over the Northwest. You’ll be able to see this clearly in a low-level (about 5000 ft) climate map for 11AM Wednesday (beneath)

I fear about this sample. There will probably be robust easterly winds over the northern Rockies, which might contribute to wildfire initiation,  and this circulation would push smoke over western Washington and Oregon. Will study the state of affairs rigorously in subsequent blogs.


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