Thursday, November 24, 2022
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We’re issuing a Stage 1 flood alert for rain storms on Thanksgiving – Area Metropolis Climate

The outlook for heavy rainfall on Thanksgiving, in a single day, and into Friday continues to worsen for the higher Houston space. As we get nearer to the onset of rains on Thursday, excessive decision fashions are indicating that the interplay of a heat entrance—you’ll positively discover the hotter and muggier air tomorrow morning—and a cut-off low stress system will produce plenty of rain. To account for this, we’re issuing a Stage 1 flood alert for the whole Houston metro space, which suggests we’re prone to see some avenue flooding. For extra details about our flood scale, see right here. The alert is in impact from Thursday morning by Friday night.


So what are you able to count on tomorrow? The pre-dawn hours needs to be pretty quiet, however by round dawn or shortly thereafter we are able to most likely count on storms to type to the southwest of Houston, close to Matagorda Bay, and transfer inland towards Houston. By the mid-morning hours, I count on to see pretty widespread, heavy rainfall throughout a lot of the area, with the doable expection of areas far inland, equivalent to Conroe or School Station. The potential for intermittent, reasonable to heavy rainfall will proceed all through the afternoon and into the night hours.

Sooner or later on Thursday night the environment could also be pretty properly “wrung out,” and wish time to get better. So whereas issues might calm down through the in a single day hours, we count on a recharged environment to supply extra widespread rainfall on Friday. I don’t suppose these showers will probably be as heavy as these on Thanksgiving Day, however we’ll must see about that. Drier air ought to lastly transfer into the area on Saturday morning, ending the specter of rainfall and resulting in a nice, sunny weekend.

Word: That is for illustration functions solely. Nonetheless, this radar reflectivity forecast from the HRRR mannequin provides you some concept of what to anticipate at 11am CT on Thanksgiving Day. (Climate Bell)


I don’t really feel significantly assured in predicting how a lot rain will fall, however given the general setup and pretty moist environment, I feel areas south of Interstate 10 may very well be 2 to six inches of rainfall over each days, with 1 to five inches for areas additional inland. It’s doable that some areas will see extra. This is sufficient to flood some streets, not less than for a short while.

I hate to say it, however this actually is a fluid state of affairs, and we are able to most likely count on further forecast adjustments. For now, we wish you to be climate conscious tomorrow while you’re out and about celebrating the vacation. Make sure you verify the radar earlier than hitting the street, and naturally don’t go outdoors into storms the place there’s lightning.

We’ll have our subsequent replace no later than early Thursday morning, and can present protection all through the vacation as wanted.


We’re within the ultimate days of our 2023 fundraiser. So in the event you admire our efforts to remain on prime of the climate, even once we’d reasonably be sleeping off our tryptophan highs, you’ll be able to purchase Area Metropolis Climate merchandise right here, or donate by clicking “I’d prefer to make a donantion” solely. Thanks!



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