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Weekly Local weather and Power Information Roundup #526 – Watts Up With That?


The Week That Was: 2022-10-29 (October 29, 2022)
Dropped at You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Coverage Undertaking

Quote of the Week: “We completely should go away room for doubt or there isn’t a progress and there’s no studying. There isn’t a studying with out having to pose a query. And a query requires doubt. Individuals seek for certainty. However there isn’t a certainty. Individuals are terrified — how are you going to dwell and never know? It isn’t odd in any respect. You solely suppose you understand, as a matter of truth. And most of your actions are based mostly on incomplete information and you actually don’t know what it’s all about, or what the aim of the world is, or know a substantial amount of different issues. It’s potential to dwell and never know.” Richard Feynman, [H/t William Readdy]

Variety of the Week:$3.8 Trillion

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Coverage Undertaking (SEPP)

Scope: Among the many points mentioned are the next: One of many perplexing points coming from satellite tv for pc measurement of sea floor temperatures within the Pacific is the conclusion that there are two distinct varieties of what’s known as El Niño occasions. One sort is the normal El Niño, with a warming occurring off the coast of Peru stretching westward. It’s adopted by a La Niña, a cooling. These altering patterns give rise to the idea known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), naturally occurring occasions which change climate worldwide. The conventional part (impartial) is La Niña. A 3-month interval through the common temperature is greater than 0.5°C off regular is named an El Niño if optimistic, a La Niña if adverse

The second sort of El Niño is the Heat Pool El Niño, a warming of a part of the Pacific which isn’t adopted by a La Niña. In a lecture to the Irish Local weather Science Discussion board (ICSF) and the Local weather Intelligence Basis (CLINTEL) Professor Wyss Yim of Hong Kong College explains the 2 kinds of El Niños are distinctly completely different occasions, with the nice and cozy swimming pools shaped by underseas (submarine) volcanoes, not modifications in atmospheric and ocean climate patterns.

Final week, TWTW mentioned Ralph Alexander’s report on how Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC) reviews are exaggerated starting with the IPCC Abstract for Policymakers. In response, AMO physicist Howard Hayden identified that IPCC reviews don’t get the essential science right in discussing the greenhouse impact. So, the exaggerators are exaggerating the IPCC science which relies on an exaggeration of the greenhouse impact.

Jim Steele has a considerate presentation on how unhealthy analyses produce unhealthy authorities insurance policies.

A bunch known as Involved Family Electrical energy Customers Council (CHECC) filed litigation within the US Courtroom of Appeals for the Washington DC Circuit in opposition to the EPA for its Endangerment Discovering. CHECC is ably represented by Francis Menton (Manhattan Contrarian) and Harry MacDougald. The clerks on the DC Circuit rejected the preliminary submitting on the bottom that it used an extreme variety of acronyms. Key elements of the transient are mentioned, and the science points introduced by William Happer and Richard Lindzen might be mentioned within the upcoming TWTW.

The Royal Society B revealed a paper the plasticity of corals in adapting the change ocean pH. Decreasing pH is falsely known as acidification. The oceans stay alkaline (pH above 7), apart from extremely localized situations. In CO2 Science, Craig Idso lined plasticity, the power of organisms to adapt to modifications in its surroundings. It’s good to see that the Royal Society B acknowledges this necessary attribute.

The UN is thrashing its warfare drums in making ready for its 27th annual Convention of Events to the UN Framework Conference on Local weather Change (COP 27) demanding a warfare on local weather change. There’s an outpouring of reviews from many UN entities. A couple of of the extra outrageous absurdities are mentioned.

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Ring of Hearth: In addressing altering local weather, usually confused with altering climate patterns, Professor Wyss Yim of Hong Kong College notes that we should think about numerous patterns so as of significance. The primary order of significance is astronomical forcing and the solar which give rise to world modifications similar to glacial/interglacial cycles, regional modifications similar to monsoons seasons and day-to-day modifications similar to altering temperature in the midst of a day, and in the midst of the seasons.

The second order of significance is geothermal warmth/plate climatology which may change local weather domestically, regionally, and globally. Brief time period occasions, similar to main volcanoes can change climate situations for a number of years. The 1815 volcanic eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia, essentially the most highly effective volcano in recorded human historical past disrupted climate patterns and temperatures globally, leading to a “yr with no summer season” in North America. It resulted in epidemic of ailments and demise in Europe. It’s estimated that common summer season temperatures within the Northern Hemisphere cooled by 0.53 °C (0.95 °F), leading to failed harvests and famine. This exhibits why cooling is extra harmful to human well being than warming.

In keeping with Yim, human induced local weather change is of third order of significance. We’ve got to totally perceive the primary two earlier than we will attribute change to human causes, and we don’t.

There are three kinds of volcanoes which ship plumes penetrating to the stratosphere. One, the well known terrestrial volcanoes for which the volcanic eruption index (volcanic explosivity index, VEI) has been developed. The classifications are on a scale of zero to eight, zero, with negligible injection of fabric into the troposphere and eight, with huge injection of fabric into the stratosphere. (The final VEI-8 volcanic eruption was Taupo in New Zealand 26,500 years in the past.) Typically, terrestrial volcanoes end in a cooling, however launch water vapor, which causes warming in arid areas, similar to deserts and the polar areas.

A second sort of volcanoes is submarine, which happen beneath the floor of the oceans. As geologist Ian Plimer writes in heaven and earth, these aren’t properly understood. The third sort are blended, ensuing within the formation of latest islands, normally within the Pacific alongside geological plates, “The Ring of Hearth.”

The 1982 eruption of El Chichón in Mexico (VEI of 5, as was Mount St. Helens in 1980) resulted in Hong Kong having the second wettest yr on report. The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo (VEI 6) resulted in a drought yr with the change in atmospheric circulation. The volcanic cloud disrupted a tropical cyclone. These prompted Professor Yim to check volcanoes.

Thankfully, we now have superior instrumentation to check volcanoes we can not see, such because the coordinated group of earth observing satellites that cross the equator northbound about 1:30 pm on the native photo voltaic time. It’s known as the Afternoon Constellation, the A-Practice. Additionally, there’s the ARGO ocean community of floats observing temperatures, salinity, and currents of the oceans beginning this century.

Sadly, the power to watch the results of submarine (subsurface) volcanoes within the oceans provides rise to many false claims from people and organizations, together with the IPCC, who don’t perceive the greenhouse impact. The infrared radiation radiated downward by greenhouse gases can not penetrate the oceans past one millimeter (lower than 1/16th of an inch, 0.04 inches). Thus, greenhouse gasoline warming can not trigger vital ocean warming with out vital, persistent, atmospheric warming elevating world temperatures. But, the IPCC and lots of of its followers insist that it does with no foundation for the declare.

For instance, volcanic exercise off El Hierro of the Canary Islands induced the Atlantic Ocean to boil instantly above that location, cooking fish. As Yim states, this was shortly blamed on carbon dioxide (CO2) warming. Additional, the volcanic warming was transported to the Arctic, inflicting a discount in sea ice, additionally blamed on CO2 warming.

In 2012 to 2016 a extremely localized ocean warming occurred within the Pacific northwest, cooking crabs and different ocean life, and when broadened grew to become often known as the Pacific Blob. Once more, CO2 was instantly blamed. As Yim states, underseas volcanic eruptions could cause extended modifications in native local weather that’s falsely attributed to CO2. Sea water temperatures off the US west coast from Portland to Mexico have been hotter in 2015-16 than in 1997-98. CO2 was blamed. Nonetheless, when these occasions are over, the warming disappears however the false claims stay.

Professor Yim concludes by stating that polar sea-ice modifications might be defined by ocean warmth waves attributable to volcanic exercise, quite than by CO2-caused warming. Local weather modeling must be improved to account for affect of volcanic eruptions on atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Lacking warmth attributed to CO2 within the oceans is best defined by geothermal warmth from submarine eruptions.

“Volcanic eruptions as a pure explanation for local weather variability (each cooling and warming) is underestimated … Earth is dynamic.”

Yim’s explanations of volcanic warming present a greater understanding of the peaks discovered within the atmospheric temperature report, significantly the height of 2016. Additionally they present a greater understanding of the variability of Arctic Sea ice soften and the heartbeat of heat water that was noticed going by the Bering Strait, leading to alarming reviews in 2018. The IPCC blamed it on growing CO2. The IPCC and its followers are so ideologically pushed that bodily proof means nothing to them. See hyperlinks below Difficult the Orthodoxy, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_explosivity_index, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argo_(oceanography), , and https://atrain.nasa.gov/.

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Getting the Fundamentals Unsuitable: In utilizing fundamental physics to develop a easy vitality constraint equation, AMO physicist Howard Hayden cited the superb work of Wijngaarden and Happer for the calculation the results of greenhouse gases on earth’s temperatures for the 5 extensively thought-about greenhouse gases. So as of significance, water vapor is most necessary, CO2 is secondary, and the opposite gases, together with methane, are insignificant. Hayden’s essays on the mannequin are discovered on the SEPP web site.

As final week’s TWTW was being completed for distribution, Hayden identified a serious error in the principle physique of the IPCC Sixth Evaluation Report (AR6, 2021). Hayden wrote:

“SSP2-4.5 (Shared Socio-economic Pathway #2, TOTAL radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m2 — [from] all modifications in greenhouse gases from all gases, all modifications in albedo, no modifications in photo voltaic output), supposedly ends in 2.7ºC temperature rise. That is bodily not possible.

“This graph [SSP2-4.5 not shown] comes from the TECHNICAL part, so the issue doesn’t lie fully with the SPM, the political hacks, and the media.  The ‘local weather scientists’ don’t apply Stefan-Boltzmann to their projections, and so they totally fail to know the Planetary Warmth Stability.”

In keeping with the Stefan Boltzmann legislation, a warming of two.7ºC requires a rise of 14.8 W/m2 (watts per sq. meter) in floor IR (infrared) emission and the IPCC vary requires a variety: 11.3 to 19 W/m2 enhance in floor IR emission. There isn’t a bodily proof of such a drastic enhance. So, the whole IPCC report relies on an inaccurate exaggeration of what’s really occurring. Additionally, Hayden wrote:

“The projected temperature rise within the graph [Shared Socio-economic Pathway #2] allegedly happens by 2080-2100 and isn’t essentially the equilibrium scenario.  Assuming that every one numbers are true, then we now have disequilibrium with extra warmth going to area than is absorbed from the solar.  The floor should subsequently be cooling.

“How in thunder does IPCC get to that overheated state?

“They clearly don’t perceive fundamental physics.”

A lot for the local weather scientists who declare that their fashions are based mostly on “First Ideas.” See http://www.sepp.org/science_papers.cfm

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Dangerous Evaluation, Dangerous Coverage: Ecologist Jim Steele produced one other considerate video how on discipline journeys to meadows, his college students instantly insisted that examples of unhealthy land-use insurance policies have been examples of the evils of CO2-caused local weather change.

“In distinction, as an ecologist I needed to think about panorama modifications, geological historical past, modifications to hydrology, organic interactions, in addition to climate and pure local weather modifications. And I had been observing these results for 15 years.”

Steele goes into different poorly understood ideas similar to wildfires, flooding, altering climate, and inconsiderate “options” to those issues. A number of the issues are human induced however unrelated to growing CO2. See hyperlinks below Difficult the Orthodoxy.

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Into the Pit: Ably represented by Francis Menton (Manhattan Contrarian) and Harry MacDougald, a bunch known as Involved Family Electrical energy Customers Council (CHECC) filed litigation within the US Courtroom of Appeals for the Washington DC Circuit in opposition to the EPA for its Endangerment Discovering. The DC Circuit Courtroom is loaded with judges who think about bureaucratic decision-making as infallible. Thus, the go well with has little likelihood of success. However it could result in an necessary paper path. Point out writes in his weblog, the Manhattan Contrarian:

Whenever you check out the transient, you will notice that we’re immediately and overtly difficult the pretend science of predicted catastrophic human-caused world warming from GHGs..(No rule on extreme use of acronyms right here at MC.).On this we be a part of our amicus the CO2 Coalition, whose transient was filed on October 21, and mentioned right here on this publish on October 22..Each the Coalition and CHECC comply with the essential principle of the scientific methodology of seeking to see whether or not there are observational knowledge which might be inconsistent with and subsequently invalidate the speculation put forth by the proponents. Each the Coalition and CHECC discover such knowledge. Each briefs then quote the well-known line of physicist Richard Feynman, ‘If it disagrees with experiment, it’s incorrect.’ Nothing very difficult about that.

Menton goes into the similarity between this combat and the issues Galileo and Kepler, who insisted that planetary motion was heliocentric, had with those that insisted it was geocentric. The details within the CHECC transient are:

  • “EPA makes use of sure official ‘floor temperature’ information, derived from authorities companies NOAA and NASA, as its temperature historical past. CHECC exhibits that EPA had no knowledge for these sequence for many of the world previous to 2000, together with none for everything of the Southern Hemisphere oceans (about 40% of the earth’s floor proper there)..To fill the hole, it merely fabricated knowledge by pc algorithm to create a report in line with its desired outcomes.
  • “EPA claims that the warming in its (flawed) temperature information can solely be defined by human influences. However CHECC exhibits {that a} structural evaluation of credible temperature sequence from satellites and balloons, after backing out influences solely from sure enumerated pure components (ocean currents, volcanoes, and photo voltaic variations), leaves no statistically vital warming left to be defined by human influences.
  • “EPA claims its speculation is supported by a particular warming sample within the tropical troposphere, often known as the ‘scorching spot.’ CHECC exhibits that the tropical ‘scorching spot’ doesn’t exist within the real-world knowledge.”

The subsequent TWTW will focus on the transient by Professors Happer and Lindzen and the CO2 Coalition. See hyperlink below Litigation Points.

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Bandwagon Rolling: Dad and mom who raised youngsters might have encountered the dilemma that when many youngsters are caught in a fib, they inform an even bigger fib. So, it’s the case of the IPCC and different UN entities. To construct as much as the upcoming COP 27, UN entities and its supporters are releasing reviews which might be approaching absurdity. The checklist is spectacular. It contains:

UN Setting Programme claims “The Emissions Hole Report 2022 finds that the world should minimize emissions by 45 per cent to keep away from world disaster. Options to remodel societies exist, however the time for collective, multilateral motion is now.” TWTW asserts that by eliminating its elevated emissions, China can cease the “world disaster” all by itself. Who will drive it?

Carbon Transient claims: “If nations meet their 2030 Nationally Decided Contributions (NDCs) below the phrases of the Paris Settlement world temperatures would seemingly find yourself round 2.2C to 2.4C, whereas reaching bold net-zero pledges would restrict warming to round 1.7C.”

“Elsewhere, a joint evaluation from a number of analysis institutes, similar to Local weather Motion Tracker and the World Assets Institute (WRI), finds that the world shouldn’t be doing sufficient to achieve its 2030 local weather targets throughout 40 completely different indicators, starting from red-meat manufacturing and deforestation by to local weather finance and inexperienced hydrogen manufacturing.” In distinction, TWTW asserts that not one of the temperature claims from growing CO2 are supported by bodily proof that CO2 is the trigger.

UNICEF claims nearly each little one on Earth will face frequent warmth waves by 2050 and that this yr and that this yr is “coldest yr of the remainder of their lives.” TWTW asserts that the affect of accelerating CO2 can not stop one other Ice Age.

The Worldwide Power Administration reviews: “World Power Outlook 2022 exhibits the worldwide vitality disaster generally is a historic turning level in the direction of a cleaner and safer future.” TWTW asserts there’s nothing safe about unreliable electrical energy.

See hyperlinks below: Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science.

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Plasticity: CO2 Science produced a lot of reviews of plasticity of ocean life. For the plasticity of corals revealed by The Royal Society B, see hyperlinks below Acidic Waters,

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Variety of the Week: $3.8 Trillion: TWTW has been unable to trace the large subsidies and different spending going into different electrical energy technology, specifically photo voltaic and wind energy. In keeping with reviews, Jeff Currie of Goldman Sachs claimed it has been $3.8 Trillion over the previous ten years. The share of fossil fuels used dropped from 82% of whole vitality used to 81%. But the full use of fossil fuels continues to increase. The silly leaders of western Governments have claimed that their jurisdiction will go Web Zero in just a few years? See hyperlink below Funding Points and Speaking Higher to the Public – Make issues up.

Censorship

Elon Musk buys Twitter “to empower citizen journalism”. No marvel the left is scared.

By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Oct 28, 2022

Difficult the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Bodily Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2013

Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/paperwork/CCR/CCR-II/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf

Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Organic Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2014

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/

Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf

Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By A number of Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change, April 2019

http://retailer.heartland.org/store/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/

Obtain with no cost:

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Local weather-Change-Reconsidered-II-Fossil-Fuels-FULL-Quantity-with-covers.pdf

Why Scientists Disagree About World Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/

Obtain with no cost:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Exercise, Guidelines the Local weather

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

World Sea-Stage Rise: An Analysis of the Information

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Coverage Transient, Could 20, 2019

Difficult the Orthodoxy

Transient of Amici Curiae Dr. William Happer, Dr Richard Lindzen, and the CO2 Coalition in Help of Petitioners and Reversal

USCA Case #22-1139, Filed Oct 21, 2022

Volcanic Eruptions, a Driver of Pure Local weather Variability – ignored by IPCC

By Professor Wyss Yim, ICSF and CLINTEL, Oct 28, 2022

Local weather Concern Mongering: Dangerous Analyses Produce Dangerous Treatments

By Jim Steele A Stroll On the Pure Aspect, Oct 26, 2022

Textual content: https://perhapsallnatural.blogspot.com/2022/10/climate-fear-mongering-bad-analyses.html

Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZIlMwGIVCI

Info and Lies about Cattle and Methane

By Walter Starck, Quadrant, Oct 25, 2022

Local weather Debate Belmont RSL twenty fifth October 2022

By David Archibald, The Wentworth Report, Oct 28, 2022

Defending the Orthodoxy

Decreasing demand is the most effective response to OPEC’s oil manufacturing cuts

By Matt Catsale and Tony Dutzik, The Hill, Oct 22, 2022

[SEPP Comment: Authors ignore that US can be independent of OPEC.]

Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science

Emissions Hole Report 2022: The Closing Window

By Employees, UN Setting Programme, Oct 27, 2022

https://www.unep.org/assets/emissions-gap-report-2022

“The Emissions Hole Report 2022 finds that the world should minimize emissions by 45 per cent to keep away from world disaster. Options to remodel societies exist, however the time for collective, multilateral motion is now.”

[SEPP Comment: By eliminating its emissions, China can stop the “global catastrophe” by itself. Who will make it?]

UNEP: Assembly world local weather targets now requires ‘fast transformation of societies’

By A number of Authors, Carbon Transient, Oct 27, 2022

“If nations meet their 2030 Nationally Decided Contributions (NDCs) below the phrases of the Paris Settlement world temperatures would seemingly find yourself round 2.2C to 2.4C, whereas reaching bold net-zero pledges would restrict warming to round 1.7C.”

“Elsewhere, a joint evaluation from a number of analysis institutes, similar to Local weather Motion Tracker and the World Assets Institute (WRI), finds that the world shouldn’t be doing sufficient to achieve its 2030 local weather targets throughout 40 completely different indicators, starting from red-meat manufacturing and deforestation by to local weather finance and inexperienced hydrogen manufacturing.”

Virtually each little one on Earth will face frequent warmth waves by 2050: UNICEF

By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Oct 26, 2022

Hyperlink to report: The coldest yr of the remainder of their lives

Defending youngsters from the escalating impacts of heatwaves

By Employees, UNICEF, October 2022

Local weather change-fueled warmth waves have value the world’s economic system trillions: examine

By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Oct 28, 2022

Hyperlink to paper: Globally unequal impact of maximum warmth on financial development

By Christopher “Callahan, and Justin Mankin, AAAS Science Advances Oct 28, 2022

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.add3726

““Virtually no nation on Earth has benefitted from the intense warmth that has occurred,’ Mankin stated.”

[SEPP Comment: Decline of deaths from starvation is of no benefit?]

Increased gasoline costs may result in cleaner vitality: report

By Julia Mueller, The Hill, Oct 27, 2022

Hyperlink to report: World Power Outlook 2022 exhibits the worldwide vitality disaster generally is a historic turning level in the direction of a cleaner and safer future

For the primary time, world demand for every of the fossil fuels exhibits a peak or plateau throughout all WEO eventualities, with Russian exports specifically falling considerably because the world vitality order is reshaped

By Employees, IEA, Oct 27, 2022

https://www.iea.org/information/world-energy-outlook-2022-shows-the-global-energy-crisis-can-be-a-historic-turning-point-towards-a-cleaner-and-more-secure-future

https://www.iea.org/reviews/world-energy-outlook-2022

World is in its ‘first really world vitality disaster’ – IEA’s Birol

By Emily Chow and Muyu Xu, Reuters, Oct 25, 2022

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/global-lng-markets-further-tighten-next-year-ieas-birol-2022-10-25/

Pledges to chop emissions are inadequate to deal with local weather change: UN

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 26, 2022

Hyperlink to report: Nationally decided contributions below the Paris Settlement. Synthesis report by the secretariat

By Employees, UNFCCC, Oct 26, 2022

https://unfccc.int/paperwork/619180

From the report: “106. Most Events (75 per cent) supplied data associated to gender of their NDCs and a few (39 per cent) affirmed that they’ll take gender into consideration in implementing them.”

“107. Many Events (52 per cent) referred to related insurance policies and laws, and a few (28

per cent) affirmed a common dedication to gender equality, whereas some (38 per cent)

included data on how gender had been or was deliberate to be mainstreamed in NDC

implementation, and lots of (46 per cent) on particular instruments and strategies, similar to gender

analyses or assessments, gender indicators, gender-disaggregated knowledge, and gender responsive budgeting, and some (6 per cent) included gender as a criterion for prioritizing

actions.”

[SEPP Comment: The gender of CO2 is important in determining its warming effects?]

Local weather Questions: How do we all know people triggered warming?

By Seth Borenstein, AP, Oct 24, 2022

https://apnews.com/article/science-climate-and-environment-099266b36d6e637d405dead6f0914a0f

“However carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels is now trapping warmth to the extent of two.07 watts per meter squared, greater than 20 occasions that of the modifications within the solar, based on the U.S. Environmental Safety Company. Methane, one other highly effective heat-trapping gasoline, is at 0.5 watts per meter sq..”

[SEPP Comment: No carbon dioxide before human use of fossil fuels? Plants disagree.]

Local weather change threatening world well being–Lancet

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 28, 2022

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