From Dr. Roy Spencer’s World Warming Weblog
Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
SUMMARY: A easy time-dependent CO2 funds mannequin exhibits that yearly anthropogenic emissions in comparison with Mauna Loa CO2 measurements provides a declining CO2 sink fee, which if continued would improve atmospheric CO2 concentrations and presumably anthropogenic local weather change. However accounting for ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) exercise throughout 1959-2021 removes the decline. That is opposite to a number of earlier research that claimed to account for ENSO. A preprint of my paper (not but peer reviewed) describing the small print is at ENSO Affect on the Declining CO2 Sink Price | Earth and House Science Open Archive (essoar.org).
UPDATE: The CO2 mannequin, with inputs and outputs, is in an Excel spreadsheet right here: CO2-budget-model-with-EIA-growth-cases.
I made a decision that the CO2 mannequin I developed a number of years in the past, and not too long ago reported on right here, was worthy of publication, so I began going by means of the printed literature on the topic. It is a needed first step if you wish to publish a paper and never be embarrassed by reinventing the wheel or claiming one thing others have already “disproved”.
The very first thing I discovered was that my concept that Nature annually removes a set fraction of the distinction between the noticed CO2 focus and a few baseline worth just isn’t new. That concept was first printed in 2013 (see my preprint hyperlink above for particulars), and it’s known as the “CO2 sink fee”.
The second factor I discovered was that the sink fee has (reportedly) been declining, by as a lot as 0.54% (relative) per yr, even after accounting for ENSO exercise. However I solely get -0.33% per yr (1959-2021) earlier than accounting for ENSO exercise, and — importantly — 0.0% per yr after accounting for ENSO.
This final discovering will certainly be controversial, as a result of it might imply CO2 within the environment won’t rise as a lot as world carbon cycle modelers say it would. So, I’m posting the mannequin and the datasets used together with the paper preprint at ENSO Affect on the Declining CO2 Sink Price | Earth and House Science Open Archive (essoar.org). The evaluation is sort of easy and I consider defensible. The 2019 paper that bought -0.54% per yr decline within the sink fee makes use of complicated statistical gymnastics, with knowledgeable statistician as a major creator. My evaluation is far less complicated, simpler to grasp, and (I consider) at the very least as defensible.
The paper shall be submitted to Geophysical Analysis Letters for peer assessment within the subsequent couple days. Within the meantime, I shall be inviting the researchers who dwell and breathe these things to poke holes in my evaluation.
